By Brian Tessmer – MavRadio, sports reporter
OMAHA–As March Madness tips off, fans across the country partake in the annual tradition of filling out their NCAA Tournament brackets. Despite countless attempts, no one has ever recorded a perfect bracket. While predicting every outcome correctly seems impossible, historical trends can offer valuable insights to give bracket-makers an edge.
What History Tells Us About Champions
Championship teams consistently rank among the best offensive squads in the nation. Since advanced metrics became widely used, every national champion—except one—has entered the tournament ranked in the top 21 for offensive efficiency. Additionally, all champions have been among the top 57 in that category. Teams that struggle to score efficiently rarely make it to the sport’s biggest stage.
Another key trend since 2004 is that every champion has been ranked in the top 12 of the AP Poll by Week 6 of the season. Furthermore, no top-two seed that started the season unranked has ever reached the Final Four—highlighting the importance of early-season expectations translating into late-season success.
Does Conference Tournament Success Matter?
One common question during bracket-building is whether a team’s performance in its conference tournament affects its NCAA Tournament fate. The answer? Yes. No team has ever lost its first conference tournament game and gone on to win the national championship. Winning a conference tournament has been a strong indicator of NCAA success. UConn won both the Big East Tournament and the national championship in 2023. The same was true for Kansas in 2022, Villanova in 2018, Duke in 2015, Louisville in 2013, and Kentucky in 2012.
Recent Big Ten champions, however, have struggled in the NCAA Tournament. Since 2020, two of the last four Big Ten Tournament champions have lost in the first round, one was eliminated in the second round, and last year’s Illinois team made the Elite Eight before bowing out. Another notable trend is that first-time head coaches have never won the NCAA Tournament. While some have made deep runs, no coach in their debut season has claimed the championship.
Seeding History: What Works and What Doesn’t?
Seeding plays a pivotal role in a team’s championship chances. A No. 1 seed has won the national title in 26 of the last 43 tournaments, making it the most successful position historically. Only three times since 1979—1980, 2006, and 2011—have all four No. 1 seeds failed to reach the Final Four.
No team seeded higher than No. 8 has ever reached the national championship game. Villanova’s 1985 title as a No. 8 seed remains the lowest-seeded champion in tournament history. While No. 2 seeds have made the title game 17 times, only five have won it all. No. 3 seeds have reached the championship game 10 times, winning four titles. No. 4 seeds have appeared in just three national title games, while No. 5 seeds have never won a championship, though they have finished as runners-up three times.
Further down the seed list, No. 6 seeds have made the national championship game twice, with Kansas in 1988 being the only winner. No. 7 seeds have only appeared in one title game—UConn in 2014, which ended in a championship victory. No. 8 seeds have reached the championship game four times, with Villanova’s 1985 win remaining the only triumph.
Cinderella runs have been rare but not impossible. No. 9 seeds have only made the Final Four once, Wichita State in 2013. No. 10 seeds have also reached the Final Four just once, with Syracuse in 2016. No. 11 seeds have made five Final Four appearances, most recently UCLA in 2021, preceded by Loyola-Chicago in 2018, VCU in 2011, George Mason in 2006, and LSU in 1986.
Beyond that, deep tournament runs become increasingly unlikely. No. 12 seed has never reached the Final Four, with Missouri’s Elite Eight appearance in 2002 being the deepest run. No. 13 seeds have made the Sweet 16 just six times. No. 14 seeds have only reached the Sweet 16 twice, with Chattanooga in 1997 and Cleveland State in 1986 making the deepest runs.
While No. 15 seeds have pulled off 11 first-round upsets over No. 2 seeds, their furthest advancement remains the Elite Eight. No. 16 seeds have historically been non-factors, with only two wins ever recorded—UMBC’s upset of Virginia in 2018 and Fairleigh Dickinson’s victory over Purdue in 2023.
Conference Strength Matters
No national champion has ever come from a conference that sent fewer than three teams to the NCAA Tournament. This trend suggests that champions typically come from power conferences or leagues with multiple tournament-caliber teams.
What This Means for 2025
With this year’s NCAA Tournament field set, these historical trends help narrow down the list of realistic contenders. Based on offensive efficiency, seeding history, and conference performance, five teams emerge as the most likely championship candidates: Auburn, Tennessee, Alabama, Duke, and Florida.
While Cinderella stories are inevitable, history suggests that one of these five teams will likely be cutting down the nets in April. However, every bracket builder knows that picking the right underdog can make the difference in winning or losing an office pool.
The question remains: Who will be this your Cinderella? Here’s Mine…
